'A bad year coming': Experts warn of high chance for significant wildfire season in Austin area

Heather Osbourne
Austin American-Statesman

Firefighters in Central Texas say they are deeply concerned about the potential for devastating wildfires within the next six months, cautioning that, without significant spring rains, the area could see another historic rampage of fires similar to that of 2011. 

Dense vegetation surrounding homes atop high points in the Hill Country of western Travis County is a beautiful sight for residents driving along Texas 71, but the scenic views that land are a source of anxiety for local firefighters. 

For years, wildfire experts like Randy Denzer, vice president of the Austin Firefighters Association, have warned that wildfires in western Travis County are unavoidable.

Bastrop firefighter Michelle Baker looks at her destroyed home in Bastrop's Tahitian Village neighborhood on Sept. 8, 2011. The Bastrop County Complex Fire in 2011 burned 34,000 acres, destroyed 1,660 homes, killed two people and injured 12 others. Randy Denzer, Austin Firefighters Association vice president, warns that wildfire conditions this year are looking as serious as those of 2011.

Now, a decade after the most destructive fire in state history — the Bastrop County Complex Fire that burned 34,000 acres, destroyed 1,660 homes, killed two people and injured 12 others in 2011 — Denzer said he and many of his colleagues fear this could be the year disastrous wildfires in western Travis County ignite. 

"I think we've got a bad year coming," Denzer said of the upcoming summer and winter wildfire seasons. "I'm telling you, everything looks exactly the same as it did in 2011." 

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A house burns to the ground in the Steiner Ranch neighborhood in West Austin on Sept. 4, 2011. Wildfires broke out around Central Texas in September 2011.

The 2011 season was the most significant in the state's recent history, with 30,896 total fires and more than 9.9 million acres burned, according to Texas A&M Forest Service data. 

Denzer, who was one of thousands of Texas firefighters who battled blazes in 2011, said that season also started with local firefighters helping to fight flames in West Texas, just as they have been doing with hundreds of wildfires over the past weeks. 

A decade ago — just as the National Weather Service has announced for this year — Central Texas was experiencing drier conditions brought on by La Niña, a climate pattern that typically leads to warmer and drier weather in South-Central Texas.

Brad Smith, Texas A&M Forest Service predictive services director, said in an interview with the American-Statesman that if Central Texas continues to see below-average rainfall in the next two months, the area would likely go into the summer without much hope of escaping current drought conditions. 

If that much-needed rainfall does not happen, Smith said counties like Travis, Williamson, Bastrop and Fayette would be at risk. However, Smith, unlike Denzer, added that he is reluctant to compare 2022 to past years.

"My instincts tell me that this summer is shaping up to be above normal," Smith said. "Is it going to be a 2011? I don't think so. I think 2011 is going to be hard to repeat."

Drought conditions in Central Texas 

The latest U.S Drought Monitor report released Thursday showed that drought conditions continue to intensify in Central Texas, with about half of Travis County and Williamson County now under moderate to severe drought. 

Nick Hampshire, a National Weather Service meteorologist, said these spring drought conditions are the worst in Central Texas since about 2015, adding that rain levels continue to be below normal.

The Rolling Pines Fire burned more than 800 acres in Bastrop County in January.

Of particular concern are areas west of Interstate 35, specifically Burnet and Blanco counties, which are under extreme or exceptional drought conditions, the latter being the worst on the scale.

"With the lack of rain and the lack of moisture on the ground, things are dry," Hampshire said. "These fires are able to develop because there is a lot of fuel for them to thrive on and to spread for long periods of time."

Firefighters for years have told Austin-area residents that all it will take for Central Texas to become the next area engulfed by catastrophic wildfires is a dry spring and summer, an errant flame and sustained winds.

Unlike California, which experiences consistent winds due to weather patterns influenced by the Pacific Ocean to the east and desert mountains to the west, Central Texas usually lacks similar sustained winds that could spread wildfires quickly across dry lands.

However, Denzer and others have said it's only a matter of time before Central Texas experiences those three needed ingredients for an active wildfire season. 

"It just seems like we're getting more winds this year, even more so than 2011," Denzer said, again warning that such winds, if paired with triple-digit temperatures, could usher in a bad wildfire season. 

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Austin firefighters work at a home that burned to the ground in Oak Hill on April 17, 2011.

May and June bring a chance for wet weather before the dry season takes hold, so there is still hope that drought conditions could improve, according to weather service meteorologist Bob Fogarty.

Fogarty said Travis and Williamson counties are about 2 inches short of their normal rainfall counts, but that areas like Burnet and Blanco counties are probably on par with San Antonio with closer to around 5 or 6 inches below normal. 

If these counties catch up to their normal rainfall amounts within the next few weeks, he said drought conditions could improve. However, he said the likelihood of ending drought conditions before summer is unlikely. 

"If we got a big springtime flooding rain, where we've got a 5- to 10-inch rainfall, which is not unusual for springtime in this area, would that be enough to beat the drought?" Fogarty asked Friday. 

"It would have some effect, but I'm not sure what that effect would be," he continued, adding that the La Nina pattern makes rain chances less likely. "I think if we get a 10-inch rainfall, it probably would be, but we're not likely to get that in the next few months."

'Always a concern' 

James Altgelt, Bastrop County assistant emergency management coordinator, said that, while his county so far is not currently in a drought, he knows the area's propensity for wildfires and he plans to keep a close eye on rainfall amounts in the coming weeks. 

Altgelt referenced the Rolling Pines Fire, a wildfire that burned more than 800 acres in Bastrop County in January, to explain how the area, because of climate change, is always at risk of widespread blazes, not only during the summer. 

"Wildfire is always a concern for us," Altgelt said. "It used to be a seven-month period or maybe an eight-month period, but now with climate change and everything that's taken place, it really is something we can see any time of the year, especially with drought conditions."

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A firefighting plane makes a drop near a burned house on Callbram Lane in Oak Hill on April 17, 2011. The 2011 wildfire season was the most significant in the state's recent history, with 30,896 total fires and more than 9.9 million acres burned, according to Texas A&M Forest Service data.

Protecting your home

Now is the time for Central Texas residents to clean their yards of debris and create a wildfire evacuation plan, according to Justice Jones, wildfire mitigation officer for the Austin Fire Department.

Jones, who helps educate property owners on how to protect their homes from wildfires, explained that it is normally traveling embers, not the actual wall of fire, that sets homes ablaze. 

Two firefighters who managed three of California’s most catastrophic wildfires surveyed the Austin area in early 2020 and warned that its wildland areas should be immediately cleared and that residents should fireproof their homes to avoid widespread devastation.

Residential neighborhoods, even if they are miles from the head of a wildfire, could go up in flames because of traveling embers that enter homes through vents or lodge under boards, those fire experts said. 

January's Rolling Pines Fire in Bastrop County spread and nearly reached homes northeast of Bastrop State Park because of traveling embers, officials said. More than 200 families were evacuated, but ultimately no homes were burned and no injuries were reported. 

The visit from the California wildfire experts helped in early 2021 to push forward Austin's Wildland-Urban Interface Code, a set of rules requiring ignition-resistant materials and landscape requirements for areas most at risk for widespread wildfires.

Fire experts warn that residential areas on the western side of Travis County are at risk of potentially disastrous wildfires.

Those requirements apply to many new homes and remodels, and were set into place just as Austin's housing market began to rebound later in the pandemic.  

While those rules don't apply to every home in Austin, Jones said there are still a lot of voluntary steps residents should take to protect their properties, such as clearing rain gutters of dead leaves and making sure that chimneys are covered with fireproof screens.

Jones added, however, that, even before people begin clearing debris that could catch fire, the first thing he would encourage is to create a family evacuation plan.

"You need to know how you're going to evacuate during a wildfire," Jones said. "Once you've done the things around your home to protect you and your family, talk to your neighbors. 

"If their home is close to you and ignites, there's a probability that it can affect your property, so you want them to be safe for their safety and for your safety."