Will Oregon’s wet spring bring quiet wildfire season, or fuel major fires similar to 2017?

In June of 2017, the Statesman Journal published an optimistic story about the upcoming wildfire season.

It had been a wet spring, after all, and there was plenty of snow in the mountains.

“Quiet season expected for Oregon wildfires,” the headline said in part.

The reality turned out anything but quiet. Numerous large wildfires smoked out solar eclipse plans while ushering the beginning of a period that’s seen wildfires become a normal part of Oregon summer.

The 2017 season became the most expensive on record to fight at the time at $447 million while burning 757,000 acres. The Eagle Creek Fire brought chaos to the Columbia River Gorge and shut down Interstate 84 for an extended period, while the Chetco Bar Fire came terrifyingly close to burning the town of Brookings on the South Coast.

So what happened, and what might it tell us about the upcoming fire season?

“I actually think 2017 is a pretty good example of what we’re worried about this year,” said Eric Wise, a predictive wildfire meteorologist at the Northwest Coordination Center. “Every season is different, but there are definitely similarities.”  

A few of the concerning aspects include rapid-growing grasses and fine fuels that could dry out and become highly flammable by late July and August, along with projections for more lightning strikes than a normal year, Wise said.

Wet spring is good and delays wildfire season

In general, the wet spring has been a very good thing for Oregon. It has refilled reservoirs, kept river flows higher than normal — good for fish and wildlife — and scaled back the severity of the state’s long-term drought.

It has also delayed wildfire season.

A year ago, major wildfires erupted near Mount Hood and brought evacuations to southern Oregon in mid-June. This year, there’s little chance of that happening so early.  

More:Marion, Polk County budgets swell for wildfire recovery, parks

“The upside is that it has delayed the fire season and given us extra time to do our hiring and training so that when fires do eventually start, we’re well-prepared,” said Jessica Prakke, spokeswoman for the Oregon Department of Forestry, which fights fire on Oregon’s state, county and private timberlands.

The late-season snowpack, which is between 160% to 400% of normal across Oregon’s mountains, also helps delay fire season and quell any potential ignitions from the Cascade Range to the Wallowa Mountains.

“I’d tend to say that (the wet spring) is a good thing overall,” Wise said. “And it could — could — end up not being much of a fire season at all. But there are definitely concerns depending on how the summer plays out.”

Rapidly growing fuels spurred by rains

Anyone with a yard in Oregon can attest to how prodigious spring rain has caused plants, weeds and grass to grow rapidly, turning backyards into veritable jungles.

The same is true in Oregon’s forests and grasslands, leading to the rapid growth of what’s known as fine fuels — smaller plants and grasses.

More:Chetco Bar Fire: How a small blaze erupted into Oregon’s largest wildfire

“Once those dry out, they catch pretty easily and burn and spread really fast,” Prakke said.  

That was one of the issues in 2017, Wise said. The growth of fine fuels spurred by a wet spring quickly dried out as temperatures spiked in July, August and September, leading to a flammable understory that ignited into major infernos such as Eagle Creek, Whitewater, Chetco Bar and Miller Complex wildfires.

Major wildfires are typically the product of multiple ingredients coming together — dry fuels, hot temperatures and wind being some of the most potent. But, of course, there also needs to be a spark, and that’s another concerning similarity to 2017.

Monsoon season in Arizona could trigger lightning in Oregon

In 2017, the most famous wildfire was the Eagle Creek blaze, which burned just under 50,000 acres in the Columbia River Gorge and was ignited by a teenager tossing a firework off Eagle Creek Trail.

In reality, though, most of the major fires ignited in 2017 were caused by lightning strikes in remote locations. The Miller Complex, Milli Fire, Whitewater Fire and Chetco Bar Fire were all ignited by lightning strikes in hard-to-reach areas that grew quickly on hot temperatures and dry winds.

This summer, there is an above-average chance for more thunderstorms than normal, Wise said. That’s because of what’s projected to be an active monsoon season in the southwest, which typically funnels moisture up to Oregon where it turns into thunderstorms.

“If the thunderstorms hit us with moisture, it can be helpful,” Wise said. “But when they just bring dry lightning, that’s when things get crazy in a hurry. That’s one of our biggest concerns this year, just that we expect an active monsoon season, and then an active thunderstorm season in the Northwest.”

Central Oregon and southeast Oregon remain in drought, at highest risk

While the recent rain has soaked northwest Oregon, the central, eastern and southern parts of the state remain mired in deep drought. It’s been a wetter spring than normal in Medford, for example, but the area is still about 3 inches below normal precipitation for the year, according to the National Weather Service.

That persistent drought means fuels are still drier than they should be, elevating fire risk.

The area where fire danger is the highest continues to be Central Oregon and southeastern Oregon, Wise said.

In general, Wise said, Oregon is in much better shape than a year ago and it could end up being a quiet summer. It’s likely to be a much shorter season than normal, with wet and cool conditions expected into late June at least.

But if the weather turns hot and dry and the lightning arrives, it could be a replay of 2017 in the summer of 2022.

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Zach Urness has been an outdoors reporter in Oregon for 15 years and is host of the Explore Oregon Podcast. To support his work, subscribe to the Statesman Journal. Urness is the author of “Best Hikes with Kids: Oregon” and “Hiking Southern Oregon.” He can be reached at zurness@StatesmanJournal.com or (503) 399-6801. Find him on Twitter at @ZachsORoutdoors.