Tropical depression 'likely' to form as odds increase to 80 percent. NHC watching 4 systems
Cheryl McCloudThere have been only three named storms in the Atlantic basin so far this year. That may change this week.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four systems in the tropics, and a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean — Invest 91L — is "likely" to become a tropical depression later this week.
If it strengthens into a tropical storm, it would be Danielle.
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"Confidence continues to grow that a tropical system will develop in the central Atlantic around midweek," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
AccuWeather forecasters said the wave is expected to become a tropical depression by the end of the week or could even reach tropical storm strength, with sustained winds over 38 mph.
However, wind shear moving east could run into the system, inhibiting development.
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There are signs the quiet period in the tropical Atlantic are about to change.
"It looks like September could really kick off an active period in the tropics. A steady wave train of energy rolling off Africa into the tropical Atlantic is expected to keep things active for a while across the Atlantic basin," said Buckingham.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. Aug. 29:
What's out there and where are they?
Invest 91L: A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Invest 92: A small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce limited shower activity.
Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this evening or early Tuesday.
Tropical wave 2: A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week.
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How likely are they to strengthen?
Invest 91L: Although environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week.
The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 50 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days: high, 80 percent.
Invest 92L: Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of this system while it drifts south and southwest over the central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and likely dissipate by the end of the week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days: low, 10 percent
Tropical wave 1: Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days: low, 30 percent
Tropical wave 2: Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
- Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days: low, 20 percent
Who is likely to be impacted?
Invest 91L: Even without tropical development, the system could bring gusty showers and rough surf before the end of the week to the northern Windward Islands.
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the other tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season.
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Colorado State University's 2-week forecast for Aug. 18-31
Meteorologists forecast normal hurricane activity over the next two weeks, with a 15% chance of above-normal activity and a 15% chance of below-normal activity.
Tropical cyclone activity is likely to increase later in the period.
August has been unusually quiet this hurricane season
If you've thought this year has been quiet, you'd be right. If a storm holds off until Thursday, Sept. 1, it will mark only the third time since records began.
Only two other seasons, since records began in 1960, have seen an August with no tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean: 1961 and 1997, according to AccuWeather.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
Although the season has gotten off to a quiet start, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Weather watches and warnings issued for your area
The next five days
See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.
Spaghetti models for Invest 91L
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What's next?
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